Is the Northeast Valley Housing Market Still Outperforming? (October 2026)

Yes. According to The Cromford Report (October 10, 2026), the Northeast Valley, which includes Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills, has been the strongest region in Greater Phoenix for four years running. The median price per square foot over the 12 months to August 2026 was $425.73, up 2.8% in a year, while the rest of the Valley combined was down 1.5%.

How does the Northeast Valley compare to the rest of Greater Phoenix?

Cromford puts the Northeast Valley median at $425.73 per square foot, compared with $242.88 for the other seven regions combined. Over three years, the Northeast Valley is up 11.6% (from $381.50). The rest of the Valley is up just 1.0% over the same period.

Is the 2.8% gain real appreciation or just more expensive homes selling?

Mostly it's the mix. Cromford found that when you compare like for like, values rose only 0.7% over the last year. The rest of the headline number came from more high-end homes closing. Even so, 0.7% beat every other region in the Valley, and all of them fell on a like-for-like basis.

Over three years, the gains are real. Holding the mix steady, price per square foot rose 9.4%, and 771 homes that sold twice gained 10.5%, compared with 2.8% for the rest of Greater Phoenix. Cromford's estimate is roughly 9% to 10% of genuine appreciation.

How much has the luxury market grown?

A lot. Per Cromford, over three years:

• The median sale price rose from $795,000 to $938,000.
• Sales at $2 million and up went from 12.3% to 19.1% of closings.
• Sales at $3 million and up went from 5.5% to 10.0%.
• Closings at $5 million and up more than doubled, from 169 to 355.

Which ZIP codes gained the most?

Paradise Valley (85253) led the region at +30.6%. Scottsdale ZIPs ranged from +17.5% in 85254 to +1.7% in 85251 and +2.5% in 85257. Fountain Hills (85268) was up 8.4%, and Carefree (85377) was lowest at +0.8%. The one soft spot was homes under $400,000, mostly condos and townhomes, which slipped 1.5%.

What does this mean for sellers?

In my experience, the headline number gets quoted more than it should. If your neighbor's sale set a record, that may reflect a bigger or more updated home, not a jump in your value. Pricing should come from true comparables in your neighborhood and price range. Want a straight answer on yours? Request a home valuation or see how I sell luxury homes.

What does this mean for buyers?

Northeast Valley values have held up better than anywhere else in the Valley, so this area has been one of the steadier places to own. That also means fewer bargains. Your leverage comes from knowing which neighborhoods and price ranges are soft right now. Browse homes for sale or explore communities like Troon North, Grayhawk, DC Ranch and McDowell Mountain Ranch.

FAQ

Are Scottsdale home prices going up in 2026? On average, yes, but modestly. Cromford shows the Northeast Valley up 2.8% in median price per square foot year over year, and only about 0.7% like for like.

Which area grew the most? Paradise Valley (85253), at +30.6% in Cromford's ZIP comparison.

How is Fountain Hills doing? Fountain Hills (85268) was up 8.4% in the same comparison.

Where does this data come from? The Cromford Report, "Northeast Valley: How Is It Different?" by Michael Orr, October 10, 2026.

Source: The Cromford Report, October 10, 2026. David Leach, Associate Broker and REALTOR®, The Tackett Team at eXp Realty. Call or text 602-854-8323.